Net Zero by 2050?

What does it mean to be Net Zero by 2050?

On the scale of the world that would mean that humans would reduce their carbon emissions enough that the carbon absorption would equal carbon emissions.

Carbon Emissions - Carbon Absorption  = ZERO carbon change in the atmosphere

Some of the math related to this is very simple. If we hope to reduce our emissions to net-zero by 2050 then a basic strategy would be to reduce by (100% of surplus emissions / 27 years) about 4% a year. That's a big goal though. Calculations show that during the year 2020, global emissions went down by 5%. So the change that happened that year would be close to the new reductions that need to happen every year from here to 2050. It's a challenge, especially since the trend has been to increase for decades (see graph below, source.)

Clearly, many aspects of our lives and current technology need to change if we are going to reduce our emissions to net-zero in the next 27 years. It may be useful to refer back to this previous post about common sources of our emissions here in Canada to consider what will need to change.

But what will life be like in 2050 if we are indeed living a 'Net-Zero' lifestyle?

Life in 2050 - The Net-Zero Lifestyle

If a baby is born in 2023, what could life look like in 2050 for Net-Zero. For one thing there are a lot more trees!

Here are a few articles on the topic that the following ideas are drawn from:

• "What if We Did Everything Right?" World Economic Form
• "Net Zero: What Will Life Be Like in 2050?" RBC Wealth Management Insights
• CBC Podcast "2050: Degrees of Change"

Homes

Our homes will have to be powered by renewable energy, such as hydro, wind and solar, but Nuclear power may be still a common base production tool, unless fusion can be made feasible. That will mean most houses likely have solar panels on them, and perhaps some wind turbines.  Heating will be done by heat pumps which run off electricity to take heat form the outside air and bring them inside. These devices also can cool in the summer so no other air conditioning is needed. A redesign of construction is also needed as the steel and concrete industries are currently large carbon emitters.  Passive green design will likely be commonplace as well with options such as i) south facing windows for winter sun, ii) tile floors to absorb winter sun, iii) deciduous trees on the south side to block summer sun, and iv) evergreen trees on the northwest side to block winter wind.

There may be more radical design alterations as well. However, our current homes will need to become more efficient as well.

Source Website

Transportation

On Manitoulin, personal vehicles will likely be all electric and also self-driving. A network of regular 'taxis' will likely take people from town to town for work like a combination of Uber and a mass transit rail system. Transport trucks and airplanes may be powered by hydrogen to provide quick fill up and long distance ranges. Cities will have large bicycle lanes for what will likely one of the main forms of urban transport.

Circular Economy

One of the ways to keep our GHG emissions low is to produce less new items, and reuse and repair older items as much as possible. So the repair industry will be more important in 2050, with less 'disposable' products. A recent push is to have companies that produce products, also deal with the waste their product creates, so hopefully we will see more durable and long lasting products overall. 

Consumables

How we eat and what we buy will also experience a transition. Methane is a powerful GHG and it is released by cows and other animals. Currently North Americans eat more meat than recommended, and to meat Net Zero targets we will likely be eating less meat. However, it would affect other foods and consumables as well. We would eat more local and likely try and use less energy in food preparation and preservation. The clothes we buy and what we do as hobbies might also change.  For example, we may use more hemp and organic fibres for clothes, rather than polyester.

Carbon Budgets

In order to maintain a net zero lifestyle we will be much more conscious of the choices we make. The government may implement a limit on how much driving you can do, possibly flexibly with carpooling or other factors. Imagine though that every person is allowed 10 tonnes of GHG emissions. What would you spend it on? Some people might choose rounds of golf, while others water skiing; some might choose playing a season of hockey while others might choose a vacation far away. There will likely some flexibility of choice, but restrictions overall. This is already seen in some countries with driving restrictions on every other day, or water restrictions working in a similar way.

Temperature Increase of 1.5˚C?

These days we talk not about stopping climate change, but climate change mitigation. That is, it's too late to stop it, but we can limit how bad it is, and begin to plan for the challenges. We are already almost guaranteed a global average increase of 1.5˚C, with a more likely forecast of 2 to 2.5˚C. But locally it's predicted to be closer to at least 3.8˚C.

(images from the IPCC Interactive Climate Atlas)

Locally we're also predicted to lose about 30 'Frost Days' by 2050, or about 1 month of the length of our winter:

It's hard to predict what effect his might have on life on Manitoulin, but check out this post if you're interested on exploring this more. It could mean changes in species on the island, and maybe it will also mean more people moving to the island as our weather becomes similar to that in southern Ontario.

Earth Day 2023 Activities - April 22nd

Earth Day is around the corner and Billings has some fun green activities planned.

Garbage Clean Up

Manitoulin Streams helps coordinate an Island-Wide Spring Clean Up and we can join in as well. Just take out some bags and comb your neighbourhood for garbage and recycling. Any time is fine, but if you're interested, you can bring by your collection to the Park Centre on Earth Day, April 22nd, from 9:30-12:30 and we will help you weigh and sort it for proper disposal. Let's see how much we can collect and clean up our township together! You may want to bring a bag for plastic/can recycling, and one for garbage. Cardboard & Paper can be recycled as well, but if you found it in a ditch it's likely too wet.

So swing by on Saturday with your waste collected and say "Hi"!

NOTE: you can pick up garbage/recycling bags at the town office if you need them.

Circular Economy Activities

Reusing items that still have good life in them really helps reduce our Greenhouse Gas Emissions. It helps with that spring cleaning urge too! To join in on these activities and keep older items in circulation you have two options: 

NOTE: contact Tina Beckerton at the Township Office for both tbeckerton@billingstwp.ca

1. Join us at the Park Centre (10am-12pm): email the township to reserve a table for your goodies at our mega community yard sale
2. Host your own Yard Sale (Saturday morning): Email your location and times to the township and we'll add your name to our Earth Day Sale list for everyone to know where to go! 

It's all free so contact Tina to get involved ASAP.  

Compost Demonstration

Exploring more options for composting around the township is also part of the CAC's plan for 2023. There will be a dehydrating composter on display - so bring down some compost to the event and you can add it to be processed. We'll also be interested in hearing about your own compost adventures or desires for the future.

The Goals of the Climate Action Committee

NOTE: Below is a summary of the CEEP document. Check the township website for the full document.

In general, the committee is working towards helping the township of Billings, the municipality and to a lesser extent the general public, adjust their activities to reduce their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and prepare for the changes that climate change will bring.

This approach is best seen through our Terms of Reference (updated version link) and the Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP) that is our overall plan for years leading to 2030. 

Summary: The Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP)

The CEEP is a lengthy document created jointly with the assistance of this committee, township staff, consultation with community members, and specialized Climate Change Coordinators.  It's general mission statement is found on page 3:

The CAC is back!

The Billings Climate Action Committee (CAC) is back for another term with some returning members and some new faces. Here's a quick list for you of who is serving on the committee this term:

• Chair: Vince Grogan
• Staff Rep: Emily Dance
• Bob Clifford
• Paul Darlaston
• Colen McKeever
• Chris Theijsmeijer

A summary of our mandate is to: (Full Terms of Reference here)

1. Review and provide recommendations to council as they relate to climate change, especially relating to the Climate Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP.)
2. Promote dialogue and greater community awareness about climate change and the CEEP.
3. Provide additional recommendations to council, at their request, relating to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Part of our history also includes a large public survey that was conducted in 2020. Here are the results!

Over the next 4 years we hope to engage with members of the public to raise awareness relating to climate change, especially as it concerns Billings Township and its residents. Please reach out to any of us if you have comments and concerns in this area. Meetings occur monthly on the third Wednesday of the month, but check the township website for the most up to date information.

We are beginning our term with a list of priorities that will help set goals for the coming year. These goals will contain a mix of initiatives, primarily stemming from the four categories of actions listed in the CEEP:

1. Natural Spaces
2. Buildings
3. Transportation
4. Waste

The CEEP is a rich document, including details on about 30 individual action items that will help us reach the overall goal of 50% reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) below 2018 levels - by the year 2030.

It's an ambitious plan, and we will need to mobilize many members of the community and municipality together to make it happen. We invite you to participate in this challenge with us through cooperation and dialogue. Contact us, visit the meetings, and keep reading this blog with its old and new posts to stay up to date on what's happening with the Billings CAC. 

COP 27 - Sharm el-Sheikh

The next instalment of COP (Conference of the Parties) is this weekend in Egypt, and Climate discussion is resurfacing again in the news.

COP 26 in Glasgow (results summary) last year brought high hopes of government action to slow our GHG emissions and keep global warming below 2.0˚C and as close to the original goal of 1.5˚C as possible. Emerging from these sessions, most scientists predicted that if governments are all successful at implementing the commitments made at COP 26, then warming would be stabilize at about 2.3˚C. Check out this previous post relating to temperatures, and GHG reduction pathways for more information.

That's a big 'if'- if governments in the 194 countries signed on to the Paris Agreement meet their targets. 

Targets generally include a reduction of GHG Emissions of 45% by the year 2030. There was also a pledge by 100 countries to reduce their methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Methane (CH4) is a very powerful GHG, but thankfully it is generally released in much smaller quantities than Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

Listening to the news today, there is some doubt about the success of COP27. Greta Thunberg has decided not to attend, and the new British Prime Minister wasn't going to go, but has since changed his mind. However, at least the shipping industry is stepping up.

Canada has a plan to achieve this, however, it does not look like we are meeting our targets. Here is a graph of our recent emissions, but note that it stops in 2020 when the pandemic hit. 

Source: Our World in Data

Since 2020 most of us have been hoping to 'bring life back to something close to normal', which means the emissions line has likely gone back up. We couldn't find any more recent data though to verify it. 

Here is another graphic to present our greenhouse gas emissions targets, and how things need to change by 2030.

Source: Climate Action Tracker

Whether or not we have hope for COP27 and the agreements that might come out of it, we are still left with our own actions. So what can we do to help fight climate change?

• Vote for representatives that will keep 45% by 2030 in mind
• Talk to others about the issue
• Take actions locally to do the best in our lives.
• Make choices to live 'smaller' and reduce our own GHG emissions.

Here's some simple tips from a previous post if you'd like a place to start.

With the new Council in Billings Township a new Climate Action Committee will be struck for the next four years. Consider joining the committee if you're interested in helping make a a difference! One of the last actions of the former committee was to apply for a grant in conjunction with Manitoulin Streams to add trees to several locations around town - carbon sequestration. Hopefully this project will come to fruition with the help of the new committee in 2023.

Overall, the whole approach of COP meetings and international signed agreements can be confusing. Here's a link to help break down the process. And here is a speech by Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Junk in Your Trunk - October 22nd!

The Billings Climate Action Committee and Parks, Recreation and Wellness Committee is hosting a special event in conjunction with the celebration of Waste Reduction Week 2022. The theme for this year is the "Circular Economy".

Circular Economy: Reduce waste by reusing, repurposing or recycling the materials that we use.

In Billings we will host a 'Junk In Your Trunk' Event on Saturday October 22nd. Bring your garage sale type items to the Market Pavillion (on Henry Drive) from 10am-2pm in one large community yard sale. No signing up required, just show up and set your goods out on a table, or from your trunk. Let's help the circular economy by taking your used items and helping them find a new home with someone else who can use them! You might find some treasures to take home as well!

Some Big Choices that Help Fight Climate Change

So you want to think about making a big switch to reduce your climate footprint?

Here's some ideas on things you might consider doing. Many of them require some financial investment, or longterm planning.

To consider these choices, perhaps it's a good time to review the major sources of equivalent Carbon Dioxide (eCO2) emitters in Canada. (Review the 3rd graph in this old post)

1) Your Next Vehicle:

Transportation and the Oil and Gas Industry are the two top sources of CO2 emissions in Canada. 

When looking to swap out or upgrade your vehicle, consider making fuel efficiency the most important feature. This could mean buying a slightly smaller vehicle, the most fuel efficient in a certain class of vehicle. If you're more determined, going for a hybrid, plug-in hybrid or a full electric is a better option for the climate. Hydrogen might become an option soon as well.

Overall, these vehicles can be more expensive to buy, but they do offer long term savings. Here's a chart with some vehicles of various sizes to help you compare annual fuel costs/savings.

There has been some discussion about the environmental cost of producing electric vehicles compared to their gasoline equivalents. The climate cost of producing an electric vehicle is about 10MT of eCO2, while the cost of producing a new gasoline vehicle is about 5MT of eCO2. This makes it look like an EV is not a 'greener' option. However, every year a gasoline car continues to product about 5MT, where an electric vehicle only produces about 1MT or less depending the source of the electricity. The long term savings of electric vehicles are definitely present.

There is a very simple way to reduce your emissions starting tomorrow as well: Car-pool. Car pooling can reduce much of your driving emissions by 50% without changing your vehicle.  

NOTE: these numbers are just approximate and vary widely based on factors like the size of vehicle, driving style, range each year and how modern the production plants are.

2) Buying Things & Transportation

Transportation and shipping is a major industry, and with the dawn of online shopping this has become even more apparent. Even with 'Green advances' predictions say that emissions will still likely go up in the near future.

The vehicles and fuel required to move all these goods around the globe are staggering. Companies are now looking at high tech options to simply this such as 'driverless cars.'

Overall, it is very difficult to manage a reduction of CO2 emissions as a consumer, but it can be done. 

This is not for everyone, but suggestions to have an impact in this area include things like:

• Buy less products (reuse & repair things more often)
• Buy local products
• Grow your own food
• Buy Canadian products
• Make do with less and live simply.

Putting some thought into your consumer habits and making some changes can still have an impact.

3) Home Heating System

How we heat our homes is likely the third most impact we can have on Climate Change. On Manitoulin we have many homes burning wood to heat their homes through the winter. The efficiency of wood stoves isn't as high as some alternatives, but wood is a natural, renewable, local resource - so it's an overall 'green' choice.

The option with the least about of carbon dioxide released is likely electricity. In Ontario, we are well positioned with a system that produces electricity from sources that release little GHGs. This means that as we use electricity we are generally choosing an option that's helpful to the climate. Modern electric options are available as well, such as heat pumps (see Green Event 2022 post).

After these two options, propane and natural gas are overall better than oil, but all three are fossil fuels (a non-renewable resource) and produce GHG's with their combustion, and delivery. A new furnace is still better with these power sources so that efficiency will go up. Be warned that the federal climate tax will be going up on these options.

Another solid option is to insulate your house as best you can. Updating windows and doors helps, along with adding more insulation in attics, walls and basements. There is a good federal grant program that will help with the costs of upgrading. 

Lastly, it's also an option to just turn down the heat when possible. Maybe that can be at night, when you're away, or just by 1˚ or 2˚ throughout the winter. Sweaters help keep you warm!

Summary:

When it comes to reducing CO2 emissions, the rule is still the same Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, but also ReThink! Finding ways to consume less gas in our vehicles, requiring less travel for our food and other goods, along with improving our home heating are all significant ways to help reduce emissions and mitigate the coming challenges of climate change. Every decision you make can make a difference to the overall emission numbers.

Lastly, remember to talk to others about the issue. Spreading the word will help everyone reduce their emissions and find options that work for their lives.

NOTE: if you want to get more creative, you can also invest in 'Green' options such as solar power in Africa.