Net Zero by 2050?

What does it mean to be Net Zero by 2050?

On the scale of the world that would mean that humans would reduce their carbon emissions enough that the carbon absorption would equal carbon emissions.

Carbon Emissions - Carbon Absorption  = ZERO carbon change in the atmosphere

Some of the math related to this is very simple. If we hope to reduce our emissions to net-zero by 2050 then a basic strategy would be to reduce by (100% of surplus emissions / 27 years) about 4% a year. That's a big goal though. Calculations show that during the year 2020, global emissions went down by 5%. So the change that happened that year would be close to the new reductions that need to happen every year from here to 2050. It's a challenge, especially since the trend has been to increase for decades (see graph below, source.)

Clearly, many aspects of our lives and current technology need to change if we are going to reduce our emissions to net-zero in the next 27 years. It may be useful to refer back to this previous post about common sources of our emissions here in Canada to consider what will need to change.

But what will life be like in 2050 if we are indeed living a 'Net-Zero' lifestyle?

Life in 2050 - The Net-Zero Lifestyle

If a baby is born in 2023, what could life look like in 2050 for Net-Zero. For one thing there are a lot more trees!

Here are a few articles on the topic that the following ideas are drawn from:

• "What if We Did Everything Right?" World Economic Form
• "Net Zero: What Will Life Be Like in 2050?" RBC Wealth Management Insights
• CBC Podcast "2050: Degrees of Change"

Homes

Our homes will have to be powered by renewable energy, such as hydro, wind and solar, but Nuclear power may be still a common base production tool, unless fusion can be made feasible. That will mean most houses likely have solar panels on them, and perhaps some wind turbines.  Heating will be done by heat pumps which run off electricity to take heat form the outside air and bring them inside. These devices also can cool in the summer so no other air conditioning is needed. A redesign of construction is also needed as the steel and concrete industries are currently large carbon emitters.  Passive green design will likely be commonplace as well with options such as i) south facing windows for winter sun, ii) tile floors to absorb winter sun, iii) deciduous trees on the south side to block summer sun, and iv) evergreen trees on the northwest side to block winter wind.

There may be more radical design alterations as well. However, our current homes will need to become more efficient as well.

Source Website

Transportation

On Manitoulin, personal vehicles will likely be all electric and also self-driving. A network of regular 'taxis' will likely take people from town to town for work like a combination of Uber and a mass transit rail system. Transport trucks and airplanes may be powered by hydrogen to provide quick fill up and long distance ranges. Cities will have large bicycle lanes for what will likely one of the main forms of urban transport.

Circular Economy

One of the ways to keep our GHG emissions low is to produce less new items, and reuse and repair older items as much as possible. So the repair industry will be more important in 2050, with less 'disposable' products. A recent push is to have companies that produce products, also deal with the waste their product creates, so hopefully we will see more durable and long lasting products overall. 

Consumables

How we eat and what we buy will also experience a transition. Methane is a powerful GHG and it is released by cows and other animals. Currently North Americans eat more meat than recommended, and to meat Net Zero targets we will likely be eating less meat. However, it would affect other foods and consumables as well. We would eat more local and likely try and use less energy in food preparation and preservation. The clothes we buy and what we do as hobbies might also change.  For example, we may use more hemp and organic fibres for clothes, rather than polyester.

Carbon Budgets

In order to maintain a net zero lifestyle we will be much more conscious of the choices we make. The government may implement a limit on how much driving you can do, possibly flexibly with carpooling or other factors. Imagine though that every person is allowed 10 tonnes of GHG emissions. What would you spend it on? Some people might choose rounds of golf, while others water skiing; some might choose playing a season of hockey while others might choose a vacation far away. There will likely some flexibility of choice, but restrictions overall. This is already seen in some countries with driving restrictions on every other day, or water restrictions working in a similar way.

Temperature Increase of 1.5˚C?

These days we talk not about stopping climate change, but climate change mitigation. That is, it's too late to stop it, but we can limit how bad it is, and begin to plan for the challenges. We are already almost guaranteed a global average increase of 1.5˚C, with a more likely forecast of 2 to 2.5˚C. But locally it's predicted to be closer to at least 3.8˚C.

(images from the IPCC Interactive Climate Atlas)

Locally we're also predicted to lose about 30 'Frost Days' by 2050, or about 1 month of the length of our winter:

It's hard to predict what effect his might have on life on Manitoulin, but check out this post if you're interested on exploring this more. It could mean changes in species on the island, and maybe it will also mean more people moving to the island as our weather becomes similar to that in southern Ontario.