Local Impacts of Climate Change

A very common question that people have is: 

How will climate change affect Manitoulin Island?

Here is the summary page that can be found on our township website. This table represents the most useful part of this document:

From Appendix B of the Billings Township CEEP

Summer Effects

Overall, the summary could be described as hotter, wetter and more stormy. It's difficult to see the 'stormy' type of prediction, but in general storms are caused by increased energy in our weather, which can be seen with the increased precipitation and heat.

Summer Heat

The table shows days over 30˚C will increase as time goes by, going from an average of 1 day per year in the past 30 years, to an average of 18.9 days by 2080 (or more accurately the 30 year period from 2051-2080). Keep in mind that these numbers are averages per year ("mean") so that some years it won't be 18.9 days over 30˚C: some years it may be only 9 days, while others it may be 29 days. The average will still be about 19 per year. Keep in mind these temperatures are all without humidex included - we often feel we have 30˚C days now, but most often they are in the 20s with a humidex touching the 30s. 

The number of nights over 20˚C ("tropical nights") will also increase, making it more unpleasant as you can't easily cool down overnight. It will also go from an average of 1 per year, to a much higher number of 22 per year by the time we reach the years 2051-2080. This could mean years where we have an entire month (31 nights) of nights over 20˚C, while others which may be only 11 nights. Note that 11 is still much higher than our current average.

Basically we will have weather more like southern Ontario when it comes to hot days, and the need for air conditioning will certainly increase.

Precipitation: There will be more precipitation as shown by the number of events over 10mm and 20mm increasing over the years. With the increase in heat, it is difficult to predict what will happen with this precipitation overall, and how it will affect the growing season. Increased heat definitely will put stress on agriculture, but it will also increase the length of our growing season (see dates of last and first frost in the table), so hopefully the precipitation will be appropriate to adjust for the heat.

Winter Effects

Overall, the winter will become shorter and there may be less snow. Here is a graph showing possible change of Frost Day Change for our region (taken from the IPCC Interactive World Atlas)

The graph is small, but you may be able to click on it to enlarge. It shows that by the year 2056 the line has fallen to about -35. That means 35 less days of temperatures below zero, or more simply stated: a little more than a month less of winter.

This may be good news if you don't like winter, but it changes what type of winter we will have. There may be more slush rather than snow, or more slippery roads with more ice than snow. However, it also means 35 less days where ice fishing or snow machining can occur, and 35 less days where the ice may even be able to form on the lake. Eg: Will the North Channel freeze over at this point?

The cold weather is a part of the climate as well so as the quality of winter changes, plants and animals will have to adapt as well. A long cold winter helps keep various insects and fungus at bay, but with less winter, these may move more onto the island. An example of this is cold temperatures helping to kill the larvae of the invasive emerald ash borer.

Overall

It is difficult to predict how our climate/weather/environment will change exactly over the next 30 years, but we must also remember that it will continue after that as well. Examine the graph of winter days above, and remember that it will continue to go down in future years, perhaps meaning there will be little to no winter by 2100.

Population shifts are another effect that might come to bear on Manitoulin. As the Earth heats up, life at the equator will become more and more difficult causing what is generally called the 'Climate Migration' (scroll down on this page to view the article). As many as 1 in 6 people on the planet will be forced to choose between living in increased heat/drought/storms, or moving north or south for better climate. Canada will be a prime destination with our friendly world image and low population density. This will likely mean many more people looking to move to the island.