Articles in the first half of 2023

Here are a collection of articles relating to Climate Change that Billings residents might find interesting. It's a start though as I'm sure you can find articles everyday in the news that relate.

1. How moving away from green lawn is an easy way to fight climate change.
• "Feel Hopeless About Our Planet?  Here's How You Can Solve a Problem Right In Your Own Backyard." CBC, April 2023
• This article discusses how typical 'green lawns' are actually very bad for the environment and a tradition from the past that we should move away from. They provide very little for the environment, and require effort, water, and often chemical maintenance. A better choice is to reduce the size of your lawn and move to more natural local species, perhaps having a 'no-mow' zone to promote biodiversity and more carbon absorption from the atmosphere. Check out Homegrown National Park if you're interested in taking the next step!
2. Try and buy only 5 new items of clothing each year?
• "Why I'm Only Buying 5 New Things in 2023" The Financial Times, January 2023
• This is an article from a fashion artist about how we need to buy less clothing. Buying new and discarding old means more greenhouse gas emissions from the production of all these clothing items. If everyone reduced their clothing purchases by half it would mean industry would actually produce less clothing and there would be less GHG emissions. Buy quality items that last, and you don't have to buy new all the time. Here's a follow-up article about doing laundry less to help make your clothes last longer.
3. How discussion about climate change can get derailed and distracted away from the real issue.
• "How Big Oil is Manipulating the Way You Think About Climate Change." The Salon, May 2023
• In discussions about complicated issues such as climate change it be difficult to focus on the key issues. Short term setbacks and distract from long term goals. Different perspectives can draw away from core principles. This article is about avoiding 'red herrings' in discussions about climate change to make sure the discuss moves forward and doesn't get too distracted from side issues.
4. How has the weather changed here?

• "Is May Always This Cold in PEI? New climate dashboard has the answers." CBC, June 2023
• When our seasons change it can be hard to compare one spring to the previous spring. Has this been the hottest spring yet? The CBC now has a climate dashboard where you can choose your rough location (e.g. Gore Bay) and then see historical weather date compared to this year's weather. Comparing weather to historical averages can help us examine the question of how our daily or monthly weather patterns reflect a changing climate or not. It also shows record high and low temperatures, historical daily trends, and overall projections for our temperature increase due to a few contrasting scenarios for the future. Remember there is also the IPCC Interactive Climate Atlas if you're interested in looking at more detailed future scenarios with temperatures, precipitation, and population density. You may also want to check this Canadian Version.

Interested in a Heat Pump?

Absolute Zero is -273˚C. It's the coldest temperature possible.

But any temperature above that and there is some thermal energy present.

This is how heat pumps can extract heat from low temperatures, even something like -15˚C. There is still heat energy in the air. Getting that thermal energy out is the trick of the technology. Heat pumps are getting better and better though and now many people are making the switch to supply heat to their homes and businesses.

Brief Description of Heat Pumps

Heat pumps have been around for many years, and became most famous as air conditioners and GeoThermal systems, but they are really the same technology as a refrigerator as well. The secret is the compressor.

Basically a gas is circulated inside the heat pump, and that gas can be compressed, which raises the temperature of the gas. 

Basic Example: Outside temperature of 0˚C, can be compressed to be 50˚C. Then this 50˚C gas flows through a pipe and it will give off heat to the air around the pipe. The air in your home is circulated around the hot pipe, heated, and then sent back into your house, having been warmed up several degrees. The main pipe continues in the heat pump to an expansion valve where the 'compression' is released and the internal gas is back to a lower pressure, and maybe -4˚C instead of 0˚C (or colder, even liquid form), having lost some of its heat energy.

A Heat Pump needs electricity to run the compressor, to circulate the gas it is compressing, and to blow air around as it absorbs and releases the heated air. However, these systems will produce about 3 units of heat for every unit of electricity it consumes, referred to as a 3.0 COP (coefficient of performance). So compared to baseboard heating which runs close to 100% efficient, heat pumps run at what is referred to as 300% efficient. 

Another way to look at this is that if you heat with baseboard heaters, you could heat with a heat pump for 1/3 the electricity cost.

The efficiency of a heat pump gets worse as the outside temperature gets colder though. Here's a graph showing a particular model as an example (Source Article) There are also many different types of heat pump.

Note: 0˚F = -17.8˚C and  60˚F = 15.6˚C

It should also be noted that current models of heat pumps have a low temperature at which they loose their effectiveness. (eg: the author's heat pump is rated to work down to -27˚C)

Considerations for Switching to a Heat Pump

1) Installation Cost

Actual installation costs can vary tremendously based on your home and current heating situation. If you have a furnace with forced air through vents, there is a heat pump that can replace that. However, if your furnace is in good condition and will run well for years it is likely not cost effective to install a heat pump yet. 

Geothermal heat pumps are very expensive to install, and require either a large ground area or deep drilling, but generally give a COP over 4.0 so they are very efficient and give cost savings in the long run.

Keep in mind that there are grants available to help make the switch as well, from propane and even more from oil. Contact the CAC if you want help of advice on this, or read these old posts.

2) Cooling

Heat pumps also provide cooling in the summer so they will replace an air conditioner if you have one. They are essentially the same thing as an air conditioner, but with the added bonus of heat in the winter.

3) Coldest Part of Winter

On Manitoulin we usually have several days below -20˚C in the winter and current heat pumps become less effective at these temperatures. The colder it gets, the more electricity the heat pump will need to compress the air and get heat to your home. In northern climates it's advisable to keep a backup option available for the coldest days such as a wood stove, or electric baseboard heaters to help with the heating your home when it's really cold.

4) Comfort

Generally a heat pump is quieter than a furnace and provides better air filtration. The air filters in heat pumps will vary depending on the type, but they are generally better than a furnace air filter, and can be washed instead of being replaced as disposable.

5) Future Cost

It's hard to predict the future, but most experts think that the cost of propane will go up faster than the cost of electricity, and oil may be even worse for costs. This is one of the leading factors for why many people are switching to heat pumps recently. Moving away from fossil fuel burning is also a major improvement to help fight climate change, who's future cost could be much higher than just utility bills.

Net Zero by 2050?

What does it mean to be Net Zero by 2050?

On the scale of the world that would mean that humans would reduce their carbon emissions enough that the carbon absorption would equal carbon emissions.

Carbon Emissions - Carbon Absorption  = ZERO carbon change in the atmosphere

Some of the math related to this is very simple. If we hope to reduce our emissions to net-zero by 2050 then a basic strategy would be to reduce by (100% of surplus emissions / 27 years) about 4% a year. That's a big goal though. Calculations show that during the year 2020, global emissions went down by 5%. So the change that happened that year would be close to the new reductions that need to happen every year from here to 2050. It's a challenge, especially since the trend has been to increase for decades (see graph below, source.)

Clearly, many aspects of our lives and current technology need to change if we are going to reduce our emissions to net-zero in the next 27 years. It may be useful to refer back to this previous post about common sources of our emissions here in Canada to consider what will need to change.

But what will life be like in 2050 if we are indeed living a 'Net-Zero' lifestyle?

Life in 2050 - The Net-Zero Lifestyle

If a baby is born in 2023, what could life look like in 2050 for Net-Zero. For one thing there are a lot more trees!

Here are a few articles on the topic that the following ideas are drawn from:

• "What if We Did Everything Right?" World Economic Form
• "Net Zero: What Will Life Be Like in 2050?" RBC Wealth Management Insights
• CBC Podcast "2050: Degrees of Change"

Homes

Our homes will have to be powered by renewable energy, such as hydro, wind and solar, but Nuclear power may be still a common base production tool, unless fusion can be made feasible. That will mean most houses likely have solar panels on them, and perhaps some wind turbines.  Heating will be done by heat pumps which run off electricity to take heat form the outside air and bring them inside. These devices also can cool in the summer so no other air conditioning is needed. A redesign of construction is also needed as the steel and concrete industries are currently large carbon emitters.  Passive green design will likely be commonplace as well with options such as i) south facing windows for winter sun, ii) tile floors to absorb winter sun, iii) deciduous trees on the south side to block summer sun, and iv) evergreen trees on the northwest side to block winter wind.

There may be more radical design alterations as well. However, our current homes will need to become more efficient as well.

Source Website

Transportation

On Manitoulin, personal vehicles will likely be all electric and also self-driving. A network of regular 'taxis' will likely take people from town to town for work like a combination of Uber and a mass transit rail system. Transport trucks and airplanes may be powered by hydrogen to provide quick fill up and long distance ranges. Cities will have large bicycle lanes for what will likely one of the main forms of urban transport.

Circular Economy

One of the ways to keep our GHG emissions low is to produce less new items, and reuse and repair older items as much as possible. So the repair industry will be more important in 2050, with less 'disposable' products. A recent push is to have companies that produce products, also deal with the waste their product creates, so hopefully we will see more durable and long lasting products overall. 

Consumables

How we eat and what we buy will also experience a transition. Methane is a powerful GHG and it is released by cows and other animals. Currently North Americans eat more meat than recommended, and to meat Net Zero targets we will likely be eating less meat. However, it would affect other foods and consumables as well. We would eat more local and likely try and use less energy in food preparation and preservation. The clothes we buy and what we do as hobbies might also change.  For example, we may use more hemp and organic fibres for clothes, rather than polyester.

Carbon Budgets

In order to maintain a net zero lifestyle we will be much more conscious of the choices we make. The government may implement a limit on how much driving you can do, possibly flexibly with carpooling or other factors. Imagine though that every person is allowed 10 tonnes of GHG emissions. What would you spend it on? Some people might choose rounds of golf, while others water skiing; some might choose playing a season of hockey while others might choose a vacation far away. There will likely some flexibility of choice, but restrictions overall. This is already seen in some countries with driving restrictions on every other day, or water restrictions working in a similar way.

Temperature Increase of 1.5˚C?

These days we talk not about stopping climate change, but climate change mitigation. That is, it's too late to stop it, but we can limit how bad it is, and begin to plan for the challenges. We are already almost guaranteed a global average increase of 1.5˚C, with a more likely forecast of 2 to 2.5˚C. But locally it's predicted to be closer to at least 3.8˚C.

(images from the IPCC Interactive Climate Atlas)

Locally we're also predicted to lose about 30 'Frost Days' by 2050, or about 1 month of the length of our winter:

It's hard to predict what effect his might have on life on Manitoulin, but check out this post if you're interested on exploring this more. It could mean changes in species on the island, and maybe it will also mean more people moving to the island as our weather becomes similar to that in southern Ontario.

Earth Day 2023 Activities - April 22nd

Earth Day is around the corner and Billings has some fun green activities planned.

Garbage Clean Up

Manitoulin Streams helps coordinate an Island-Wide Spring Clean Up and we can join in as well. Just take out some bags and comb your neighbourhood for garbage and recycling. Any time is fine, but if you're interested, you can bring by your collection to the Park Centre on Earth Day, April 22nd, from 9:30-12:30 and we will help you weigh and sort it for proper disposal. Let's see how much we can collect and clean up our township together! You may want to bring a bag for plastic/can recycling, and one for garbage. Cardboard & Paper can be recycled as well, but if you found it in a ditch it's likely too wet.

So swing by on Saturday with your waste collected and say "Hi"!

NOTE: you can pick up garbage/recycling bags at the town office if you need them.

Circular Economy Activities

Reusing items that still have good life in them really helps reduce our Greenhouse Gas Emissions. It helps with that spring cleaning urge too! To join in on these activities and keep older items in circulation you have two options: 

NOTE: contact Tina Beckerton at the Township Office for both tbeckerton@billingstwp.ca

1. Join us at the Park Centre (10am-12pm): email the township to reserve a table for your goodies at our mega community yard sale
2. Host your own Yard Sale (Saturday morning): Email your location and times to the township and we'll add your name to our Earth Day Sale list for everyone to know where to go! 

It's all free so contact Tina to get involved ASAP.  

Compost Demonstration

Exploring more options for composting around the township is also part of the CAC's plan for 2023. There will be a dehydrating composter on display - so bring down some compost to the event and you can add it to be processed. We'll also be interested in hearing about your own compost adventures or desires for the future.

The Goals of the Climate Action Committee

NOTE: Below is a summary of the CEEP document. Check the township website for the full document.

In general, the committee is working towards helping the township of Billings, the municipality and to a lesser extent the general public, adjust their activities to reduce their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions and prepare for the changes that climate change will bring.

This approach is best seen through our Terms of Reference (updated version link) and the Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP) that is our overall plan for years leading to 2030. 

Summary: The Community Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP)

The CEEP is a lengthy document created jointly with the assistance of this committee, township staff, consultation with community members, and specialized Climate Change Coordinators.  It's general mission statement is found on page 3:

The CAC is back!

The Billings Climate Action Committee (CAC) is back for another term with some returning members and some new faces. Here's a quick list for you of who is serving on the committee this term:

• Chair: Vince Grogan
• Staff Rep: Emily Dance
• Bob Clifford
• Paul Darlaston
• Colen McKeever
• Chris Theijsmeijer

A summary of our mandate is to: (Full Terms of Reference here)

1. Review and provide recommendations to council as they relate to climate change, especially relating to the Climate Energy and Emissions Plan (CEEP.)
2. Promote dialogue and greater community awareness about climate change and the CEEP.
3. Provide additional recommendations to council, at their request, relating to climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Part of our history also includes a large public survey that was conducted in 2020. Here are the results!

Over the next 4 years we hope to engage with members of the public to raise awareness relating to climate change, especially as it concerns Billings Township and its residents. Please reach out to any of us if you have comments and concerns in this area. Meetings occur monthly on the third Wednesday of the month, but check the township website for the most up to date information.

We are beginning our term with a list of priorities that will help set goals for the coming year. These goals will contain a mix of initiatives, primarily stemming from the four categories of actions listed in the CEEP:

1. Natural Spaces
2. Buildings
3. Transportation
4. Waste

The CEEP is a rich document, including details on about 30 individual action items that will help us reach the overall goal of 50% reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) below 2018 levels - by the year 2030.

It's an ambitious plan, and we will need to mobilize many members of the community and municipality together to make it happen. We invite you to participate in this challenge with us through cooperation and dialogue. Contact us, visit the meetings, and keep reading this blog with its old and new posts to stay up to date on what's happening with the Billings CAC. 

COP 27 - Sharm el-Sheikh

The next instalment of COP (Conference of the Parties) is this weekend in Egypt, and Climate discussion is resurfacing again in the news.

COP 26 in Glasgow (results summary) last year brought high hopes of government action to slow our GHG emissions and keep global warming below 2.0˚C and as close to the original goal of 1.5˚C as possible. Emerging from these sessions, most scientists predicted that if governments are all successful at implementing the commitments made at COP 26, then warming would be stabilize at about 2.3˚C. Check out this previous post relating to temperatures, and GHG reduction pathways for more information.

That's a big 'if'- if governments in the 194 countries signed on to the Paris Agreement meet their targets. 

Targets generally include a reduction of GHG Emissions of 45% by the year 2030. There was also a pledge by 100 countries to reduce their methane emissions by 30% by 2030. Methane (CH4) is a very powerful GHG, but thankfully it is generally released in much smaller quantities than Carbon Dioxide (CO2).

Listening to the news today, there is some doubt about the success of COP27. Greta Thunberg has decided not to attend, and the new British Prime Minister wasn't going to go, but has since changed his mind. However, at least the shipping industry is stepping up.

Canada has a plan to achieve this, however, it does not look like we are meeting our targets. Here is a graph of our recent emissions, but note that it stops in 2020 when the pandemic hit. 

Source: Our World in Data

Since 2020 most of us have been hoping to 'bring life back to something close to normal', which means the emissions line has likely gone back up. We couldn't find any more recent data though to verify it. 

Here is another graphic to present our greenhouse gas emissions targets, and how things need to change by 2030.

Source: Climate Action Tracker

Whether or not we have hope for COP27 and the agreements that might come out of it, we are still left with our own actions. So what can we do to help fight climate change?

• Vote for representatives that will keep 45% by 2030 in mind
• Talk to others about the issue
• Take actions locally to do the best in our lives.
• Make choices to live 'smaller' and reduce our own GHG emissions.

Here's some simple tips from a previous post if you'd like a place to start.

With the new Council in Billings Township a new Climate Action Committee will be struck for the next four years. Consider joining the committee if you're interested in helping make a a difference! One of the last actions of the former committee was to apply for a grant in conjunction with Manitoulin Streams to add trees to several locations around town - carbon sequestration. Hopefully this project will come to fruition with the help of the new committee in 2023.

Overall, the whole approach of COP meetings and international signed agreements can be confusing. Here's a link to help break down the process. And here is a speech by Christiana Figueres, former Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.