Local Impacts of Climate Change

A very common question that people have is: 

How will climate change affect Manitoulin Island?

Here is the summary page that can be found on our township website. This table represents the most useful part of this document:

From Appendix B of the Billings Township CEEP

Summer Effects

Overall, the summary could be described as hotter, wetter and more stormy. It's difficult to see the 'stormy' type of prediction, but in general storms are caused by increased energy in our weather, which can be seen with the increased precipitation and heat.

Summer Heat

The table shows days over 30˚C will increase as time goes by, going from an average of 1 day per year in the past 30 years, to an average of 18.9 days by 2080 (or more accurately the 30 year period from 2051-2080). Keep in mind that these numbers are averages per year ("mean") so that some years it won't be 18.9 days over 30˚C: some years it may be only 9 days, while others it may be 29 days. The average will still be about 19 per year. Keep in mind these temperatures are all without humidex included - we often feel we have 30˚C days now, but most often they are in the 20s with a humidex touching the 30s. 

The number of nights over 20˚C ("tropical nights") will also increase, making it more unpleasant as you can't easily cool down overnight. It will also go from an average of 1 per year, to a much higher number of 22 per year by the time we reach the years 2051-2080. This could mean years where we have an entire month (31 nights) of nights over 20˚C, while others which may be only 11 nights. Note that 11 is still much higher than our current average.

Basically we will have weather more like southern Ontario when it comes to hot days, and the need for air conditioning will certainly increase.

Precipitation: There will be more precipitation as shown by the number of events over 10mm and 20mm increasing over the years. With the increase in heat, it is difficult to predict what will happen with this precipitation overall, and how it will affect the growing season. Increased heat definitely will put stress on agriculture, but it will also increase the length of our growing season (see dates of last and first frost in the table), so hopefully the precipitation will be appropriate to adjust for the heat.

Winter Effects

Overall, the winter will become shorter and there may be less snow. Here is a graph showing possible change of Frost Day Change for our region (taken from the IPCC Interactive World Atlas)

The graph is small, but you may be able to click on it to enlarge. It shows that by the year 2056 the line has fallen to about -35. That means 35 less days of temperatures below zero, or more simply stated: a little more than a month less of winter.

This may be good news if you don't like winter, but it changes what type of winter we will have. There may be more slush rather than snow, or more slippery roads with more ice than snow. However, it also means 35 less days where ice fishing or snow machining can occur, and 35 less days where the ice may even be able to form on the lake. Eg: Will the North Channel freeze over at this point?

The cold weather is a part of the climate as well so as the quality of winter changes, plants and animals will have to adapt as well. A long cold winter helps keep various insects and fungus at bay, but with less winter, these may move more onto the island. An example of this is cold temperatures helping to kill the larvae of the invasive emerald ash borer.

Overall

It is difficult to predict how our climate/weather/environment will change exactly over the next 30 years, but we must also remember that it will continue after that as well. Examine the graph of winter days above, and remember that it will continue to go down in future years, perhaps meaning there will be little to no winter by 2100.

Population shifts are another effect that might come to bear on Manitoulin. As the Earth heats up, life at the equator will become more and more difficult causing what is generally called the 'Climate Migration' (scroll down on this page to view the article). As many as 1 in 6 people on the planet will be forced to choose between living in increased heat/drought/storms, or moving north or south for better climate. Canada will be a prime destination with our friendly world image and low population density. This will likely mean many more people looking to move to the island. 

10 Simple Tips to Reduce Your Personal GHG Emissions

Here are some simple options that can help you reduce your Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs) from your everyday life. They cost little or no money, and often these tips will even save you money. Each tip has some details below:

1. Drive slower
2. Carpool, or combine trips
3. Eat less meat
4. Grow your own food
5. Reduce your heat & air conditioning
6. Avoid bottled water
7. Compost
8. Take shorter or lower temperature showers
9. Avoid using the clothes dryer
10. Buy less stuff

Drive slower and carpool

Transportation is one of the largest sources of GHG emissions in Canada and reducing fuel consumption really reduces GHG emissions. 

1 litre of gasoline produces about 2.3kg of CO2 (reference). 

There are several ways to reduce your fuel consumption, such as buying more fuel efficient vehicle like a hybrid, plug-in hybrid or electric vehicle. However that's an expensive option and best to consider when you're in the market to buy a new vehicle.

An easy way to reduce your fuel consumption is to carpool. If 2 people decided to drive to work together, when likely that's about 50% savings! Maybe this can work for a trip for groceries, or off-island for a shopping trip. Talk to your friends and get in a vehicle together - usually this leads to more enjoyable driving as well.

Reducing your speed can usually lead to better fuel economy as well. This is mostly because air friction on your car increases significantly as speeds increase. A rough estimation is that doubling your speed would mean 4 times the air drag. Here's an American article with some statistics, and here is the data translation to metric for Canadians:

Example: Toyota Camry

        @88  km/h              @104 km/h            @120km/h

            =5.8L/100km         =6.7L/100km         =7.9/100km

Basically, if you drive slower you will use less gas to get where you are going - but it will take a little longer. This saves you money as you cover the same distance with less gas!

Keeping proper care of your vehicle will also help you use less fuel too.

Meat and Vegetables

Overall, meat is a common part of our omnivore diet as humans. However, in Canada we more meat than the average in the world, and between 1961 and 2014 meat consumption has more than doubled. Meat is also more energy intensive to produce because it is higher on the food chain. This means that first we grow vegetables/grains, then an animal eats them, and then we can eat the animal. About 90% of energy is lost in this extra step of the food chain. So eating less meat means consuming less energy to produce the food. It is estimated that going one day without eating meat would save about 3.5kg of GHG emissions. Perhaps try one day a month, or one day a week?

If you can grow your own food as well and that saves in a different way. The food production system grows food in one location, transports it to a warehouse, then to a grocery store, and then you buy it and bring it home. Each of those steps consumes energy such as fuel for transportation. Eating local, such as from your own garden or from a local farmer reduces GHG emissions as well.

Home Heating/Cooling

Heating our homes through winter, and cooling in the summer, is a large GHG emissions source. Finding more efficient heat sources such as heat pumps makes a big difference, but simply turning down the thermostat in the winter by 1 or 2 degrees also makes a difference. An estimate states that turning down your heat by 1 degree could save up to 350kg of GHG emissions, and over $100 in energy costs! Just cosy up with a warm sweater and you won't even notice that 1 degree.

Reducing Waste

Reducing how much garbage you produce will help save GHG emissions as well. If less is thrown out for the landfill, then you are likely consuming less, or using reusable items more. Two easy ways to reduce your waste is to avoid bottled water and composting.

Bottled Water is a bit of a scam because there are less health rules around the purity of bottled water than there is with municipal water. Also, the cheap plastic used with bottled water can get into the water you'd be drinking. Overall though, clean water is a human right and you shouldn't have to spend money buying it. If you want to have cleaner water than what comes from your tap, it's better to buy a simple filter like a Brita than use all those disposable plastic bottles to reduce waste and save money too.

We don't consume 100% of the food we buy (eg: coffee grounds), and it is actually a great resource if you take advantage of it. Composting your food waste brings returns for new soil nutrients that can help your garden grow bigger and better food. Sending compost to the landfill is not good either - as the high water content in compost materials leads to leaching of chemicals from the landfill, and increasing pollution in our water systems. Composting is very easy to do and it gives returns every year with a greener garden. In the words of one of our local experts - E.B. "That stuff's like gold!"

Energy Consumption at Home

It's good to turn off your lights when you're not using them, but there are a few appliances around the house that use much more electricity than a light. Our clothes dryers and hot water heaters are two examples of high usage appliances.

Using less hot water reduces your overall energy usage significantly, so shorter showers, or cooler showers help reduce GHG emissions. However, washing your clothes in cold water also works the same way.

The clothes dryer also consumes a lot of energy. Using a clothes line during fair weather is a great option to safe money and reduce GHG gases. A few drying racks indoors through the winter works just as well and ensures you have some humidity in your home through the winter.

Buy Less Stuff

Basically, every time we buy something that is 'new' there has been energy consumed to make it, and GHG emissions released. The less we buy as new the less emissions are released. So some of the obvious options are to buy less stuff if possible. Other great options are to reuse, repair or buy used. A recent trend which is particular bad for the environment is 'Fast Fashion' and should be avoided.  This suggests that if we can buy something that will last longer, it's usually better for the environment, and will save you money in the long run.

This final item our is likely the most powerful to cause change in society. Every time we purchase something we are putting money into the economy to support the products we buy. One lesson we learned from the pandemic is that if people stop buying some products, they will stop being made. So we all could be a little more careful about where spend our money and what parts of the economy we decide to support, and start asking ourselves more often - "Do we really need this thing?"

Thanks for ready this long post. If you're interested, here's a list of 25 things to reduce your GHG emissions.

Is It a Good Time to Start Making Changes?

 We Canadians live well. Of course it does depend on how you look at it.

However, among the ~195 countries of the world Canada is one of the nicest. In this ranking from USA News we are ranked #1 in the world for 'Quality of Life'. Although in this ranking by the World Bank for the Best Countries to Live In - we don't make the top 10. We do have serious work to improve the lives of indigenous people, and other minorities, but all in all, the average person in Canada lives well.

Perhaps this is why so few of us seem to be concerned with making changes to help fight climate change?

However, this decade could be the deciding factor as to what the next few hundreds of years will look like on planet Earth. As Canadians we also have more ability to make changes to our lives to reduce GHG emissions.

To help understand this, consider this graph of GHG Emission Pathways created by Simon Donner of UBC:

This graph was prepared to demonstrate the contrasting climate policies in the 2021 federal election. However the three black lines showing the various scenarios of warming for the Earth are very useful. If we do very little to change our ways with GHG emissions we will end up in the 3˚C scenario (or worse) -  which is the gentle hill going down. If we get very aggressive with GHG emission reductions we might be able to meet these federal plans and we will follow something close to the middle line and have only 2˚C of warming overall. Or if we had reduced emissions drastically in the past two years we could have prevented more warming and followed the steepest of the lines (<1.5˚C of warming.) Here is an article from NASA for information on the difference scenarios of 1.5, 2.0 or 3.0 degrees of warming.

The title of this particular post is about whether it's a good time to make changes to help fight climate change. To really look at this topic, consider the very top of the graph where the lines begin to diverge (magnified below):

There is a grey zone in the red box highlighting the three paths, but the red arrow marks roughly January 2024 - That is about 18 months away at the time of writing this post. So will we be on the path of decreasing GHG emissions significantly (green arrow, to about 600Mt/year, or 17%) by then, or will we have made very little progress and end up following the top line? By the end of 2024 we will likely be able to see which path we are following. 

What Does It Mean to Reduce by 17% by Jan 2024?

This graph is showing the overall emissions for our country, and therefore reducing by 17% is a nationwide goal. One way to interpret this is that every citizen, regardless of age, or job, or living situation reduces their GHG emissions, including in their homes, with their transportation, and in their employment locations. What might this mean? We could all drive 17% less, or buy a vehicle that is 17% more efficient, and reducing our heating by 17%, buy 17% clothes or other material things, and buy food with with 17% less emissions such as local options. Even this goal is complicated for every Canadian to implement.

A more realistic scenario would likely include some people making decisions to reduce more than 17% while others are slower to make the transition. Not everyone has the means to make changes, and not everyone is even interested. The challenge will be to see which of us makes the changes and which don't?

Other possible scenarios involve large scale corporate or government decisions. In this previous post about the sources of GHG emissions in Canada we see that 17% reductions could be achieved by shutting down much of the oil and gas production in Canada. However, that would not be fair to those industries unless we can provide a Just Transition for the companies and their employees who would need to find new, more sustainable, jobs.

Summary

We don't know what will happen in the future, but examining this one graph should tell you that our fates will be decided in the next 8 years, and that we need to start making decisions in the years of 2022 and 2023 to begin the shift to changing our emissions. The economy is slow to change, but we as consumers have the power to make it happen by being careful with the spending decisions we make. We need to keep the overall warming of our atmosphere below 2.0˚C if possible, and we need to make decisions starting now.

Here is a video from the Economist about what a world of 3.0 degrees of warming could bring.

Climate Change - In the News (June 2022)

NOTE: We attempt to highlight a selection of recent news articles related to climate change to help readers sort through all the news around us these days.

1) "For This Remote First Nation, Installing Heat Pumps is Worth The Effort"

Source: CBC 'What on Earth'

Members of the Heiltsuk Nation have found that relying on fossil fuels to run their community has had a high cost, with not only climate change, but an oil spill from the barge bringing them fuel. For them it is worth the effort to install Heat Pumps for their entire community, as it will save each family money, but also represent a return to a more earth friendly culture which is very important to them.

2) "UN Climate Report - It's 'Now or Never' to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees"

Source: United Nations

This article is very serious, starting with this quote: 

"Reacting to the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN Secretary-General insisted that unless governments everywhere reassess their energy policies, the world will be uninhabitable."

It goes on to say that without immediate and drastic cuts to GHG emissions, and basically a total refit of our energy sectors, we will not be able to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Despite continual warnings and the international agreement in Paris in 2016, global emissions have continued to rise since 2010.

3) "Groundbreaking report outlines Canada's quick path to clean power"

Source: The David Suzuki Foundation

A new report says that Canada as a whole could transition to clean and renewable energy by 2035 without significant costs, or relying transition systems or nuclear. The report finds that by expanding solar and wind at a pace which Germany is currently pursuing (to help move away from depending on Russia) that we could successfully move to a zero-emission electrical system. It also highlights how this would create a steady increase in sustainable jobs, and lower overall costs in the long run. It would take a serious commitment from governments at all levels though.

4)  "Government will ban some single-use plastics over the next 18 months"

Source: CBC News

The federal government announced it is following through with it's promise to ban some single use plastics, while continuing to support the industry during the transition. The list of items includes straws, cutlery, stir sticks, and take out containers (and more), and production of these items should cease by the end of this year. Companies will still be able to sell their stock until the end of 2023, or export stock until the end of 2025. Reasons cited are the low demand for recycled plastic, and the poor record we have in Canada for recycling of plastic. Most of these plastic items can be recycled but actually end up in our landfills, and polluting our lands and waters.

5) "Fossil Fuel companies 'have humanity by the throat', says UN head in blistering attack"

Source: The Guardian

Speaking at a climate change conference organized by the White House, Antonio Guterres declared that fossil fuel companies are leveraging the war in the Ukraine to bring in record profits and further expand their fuel explorations. He alleges that they deny the negative impacts their products have on climate change and hide their connections behind misleading information. He also criticized governments and other businesses for failing to take opportunities to reduce emissions quickly despite several scary reports from the UN recently (such as #2 above.)

Earth Day Event Review: Part 2 - Local Service Providers

There were a number of local service providers present displaying their wares for greener options to fight climate change at our April 2022 Earth Day Event. Many include options for under the government programs listed in our previous post, and but there were some additional options as well. We are grateful to all our participants!

Here is a summary list:

1. Campbell Heating: Heat Pumps

Heat pumps are a modern alternative for heating your home. A heat pump run on electricity and extract heat from the outside air or ground, even at temperatures of -28˚C, and then releases the energy into your home, with no exchange of air. Efficiency ratings (COP) are 3 to 4 times better than baseboard heating, so that with every unit of energy spent in electricity, you get 3-4 units of heat energy in your home. These devices also provide cooling in the summer just like air conditioning.

2. Manitoulin Off-Grid: Solar Systems

Solar energy is clean from the sun, and free, once you put up the system. Solar panels are continuously improving and becoming cheaper to buy so that this type of installation on your home is even more affordable than ever. You can either install a full system to go off-grid and be done with hydro bills completely, or register with the provincial net-metering program to sell your electricity back to the grid while still maintaining your public connection to power.

3. Manitoulin Tree Services: Arborists

Planting trees, maintaining your current trees, and cutting down dangerous ones safely are all an important part of maintaining the land on Manitoulin. Contact a local arborist to get help keeping trees around us as much as possible. They act as strong carbon syncs and as a renewable energy resource for our local economy.

4. Manitoulin Climate Consortium: A variety of programs

Manitoulin Climate Consortium brings together various local groups with the common goal of confronting the climate crisis. Current members include ‘Cultural Seeds’, Community Gardens, We Will Plant Lodge, and more.

5. Manitoulin Streams: River Rehabilitation and Tree Planting

Manitoulin Streams has a long history of environmental projects completed on Manitoulin, more related to riparian work such as was conducted on the Kagawong River several years ago. They contribute in many other ways around the island as well, working with local interest groups, schools, and municipalities to help maintain our treasured ecosystems.

6. Eco-Growth Environmental: Composting Process for Fuel

This group has developed technology to convert ordinary compost into dehydrated ‘pucks’ that can be burned for heating your home. They are composting experts that can help turn this common waste into a useful fuel for businesses.

7. Re-think Green: Local and Municipal programs

Re-think Green is a Sudbury based non-profit organization that works primarily with municipalities and business to explore green options, opportunities and funding. They can help groups apply for funding related to green projects, or facilitate workshops to develop strategies for future planning. 

The Billings Climate Action Committee would also like to thank the following groups for attending the spring Earth Day Event to help spread information for the benefit of our community:

• Manitoulin Secondary School Eco-Heros

• Devin Whyte: Electric Cars

Earth Day Event Review: Part 1 - Government Rebates

 At the spring Earth Day Event in April 2022 we had several service groups represented to raise awareness of opportunities for Billings Residents to take advantage of climate saving options. Here are a few highlights:

A) Canada Greener Home Grant

This program will help fund up to $5000 in ‘Green’ home energy upgrades for Canadians. It will cover partial costs for improvements in many possible areas, depending on the needs of your home. All the upgrades and improvements are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while also saving homeowners money over longer periods. The program will also cover up to $600 of fees for the required home inspections by a licensed Home Energy Inspector.

Home Energy -Blower Test

Examples:

• Improving insulation in walls or attics

• Upgrading windows/doors for reducing heat loss

• Upgrading home heating options for increased efficiency

• Installing green energy options in your home for increased efficiency

• Upgrading water systems, such as toilets or water heaters, for increased efficiency

To go through the process you follow these general steps:

1. Register for the ‘Canada Greener Homes Grant’ and choose a “Green Energy Company’ from the list provided to conduct your grant visits.

2. Connect with a local Home Energy Inspector to have them come to your house for an inspection before work is done.

3. The Home Energy Inspector discusses your ideas for improvements and recommends solutions that align with the options available with the grant.

4. Install the improvements with a chosen local contractor.

5. Have a post-installation visit from the Home Energy Inspector to ensure goals have been met for the program.

6. Send in your receipts online to the Green Homes Grant Website.

7. Receive a rebate check.

It is important to note that contact with the Home Inspector MUST occur before the work has been done to your home - they need to inspect your house first!

Additional questions can be directed to your local contractors, or to Chris T on the committee who has gone through the process already.

B) Managed Forest Tax Incentive Program

This provincial tax credit has been active for over a decade with many Islanders already taking advantage. It follows many different ‘10’s on how it functions

• Anyone with at least 10 acres (4 hectares) of forest on a single property can apply, as long as they are a Canadian citizen or permanent resident

• A ‘Managed Forest Plan Approver’ will visit and work with residents to develop a 10 year management plan for maintain the forest.

• This plan will be reviewed after 5 years and requires updating after 10 years to continue with the program. 

The basic premise is that maintaining forest is good for our communities and our province. So the government will provide a tax incentive to maintain forests. The most common question relating to this program is what is required to ‘maintain’ the forest. A local ‘Managed forest Plan Approver’ that presented at the event, Maria Diebolt, of Manitoulin Tree Services, suggests that all of these actions are still allowed while maintaining your forest for the tax credit:

• Maple Syrup collection

• Cutting for firewood

• Maintaining a road/path

Basically, you as long as you don’t clear cut the forest, and act responsibility so the forest can remain healthy for generations it will qualify. 

To get involved with the Tax Credit program, contact your local arborist and connect with any of the local Plan Approvers. Estimated annual tax savings are likely in the hundreds of dollars.

Earth Day Event 2022

 Saturday, April 23, 1-4pm

at the Billings Parks Centre

"Small Steps Towards Making a Difference"

Note: This post will be updated with the latest details for this event as they become available.

The Climate Action Committee (CAC) of Billings welcomes you to an afternoon of 'Green' learning where you can come and share with other community members while focusing on ways to make a difference to slow down climate change. The event will feature short talks by 3 guest speakers who will address contrasting elements of climate change and helping the environment. There will also be a selection of local businesses and groups providing booths for conversation and questions. See the list below for more information:

Guest Speakers:

1:20pm - Marshall Kruger - Energy Advisor, Rosewood Energy

                Canada Greener Homes Grant

2:00pm - Liam Campbell - Manitoulin Streams

               The Benefits of a Vegetative Riparian Zone along the Kagawong River

2:40pm - Chris Theijsmeijer - Billings CAC Member
                Electric Vehicle Updates

3:20pm - Maria Diebolt - Manitoulin Tree Services
                The Managed Forest System

Booth Participants:

• Campbell Heating (Andy Campbell)- Air Source Heat Pumps and more
• Manitoulin Off-Grid (Andre Probst) - Solar Panels and Home Energy
• Colen McKeever - Eco-Growth Environmental - Compost Fuel Systems
• Manitoulin Streams (Liam Campbell) - River Projects and More!
• Manitoulin Tree Service (Maria Diebolt) - Tree Planting and Forest Management
• Manitoulin Climate Consortium (Kim Neale) - Community Climate Action opportunities [in conjunction with Celeste Smith (Cultural Seeds) and Chuc & Linda Wilson (Community Garden)]
• ReThink Green (Simon Blakely, Program Director) - Green Economy North Program
• MSS Eco-Hero Program (Various students) - The Eco-Hero Program and climate action
• Chris Theijsmeijer - Electric Vehicles

Refreshments will be available, but feel free to bring your own mug. Sanitizer and masks will be available but both are optional for this event. It will be wonderful to get together in person again.