Is It a Good Time to Start Making Changes?

 We Canadians live well. Of course it does depend on how you look at it.

However, among the ~195 countries of the world Canada is one of the nicest. In this ranking from USA News we are ranked #1 in the world for 'Quality of Life'. Although in this ranking by the World Bank for the Best Countries to Live In - we don't make the top 10. We do have serious work to improve the lives of indigenous people, and other minorities, but all in all, the average person in Canada lives well.

Perhaps this is why so few of us seem to be concerned with making changes to help fight climate change?

However, this decade could be the deciding factor as to what the next few hundreds of years will look like on planet Earth. As Canadians we also have more ability to make changes to our lives to reduce GHG emissions.

To help understand this, consider this graph of GHG Emission Pathways created by Simon Donner of UBC:

This graph was prepared to demonstrate the contrasting climate policies in the 2021 federal election. However the three black lines showing the various scenarios of warming for the Earth are very useful. If we do very little to change our ways with GHG emissions we will end up in the 3˚C scenario (or worse) -  which is the gentle hill going down. If we get very aggressive with GHG emission reductions we might be able to meet these federal plans and we will follow something close to the middle line and have only 2˚C of warming overall. Or if we had reduced emissions drastically in the past two years we could have prevented more warming and followed the steepest of the lines (<1.5˚C of warming.) Here is an article from NASA for information on the difference scenarios of 1.5, 2.0 or 3.0 degrees of warming.

The title of this particular post is about whether it's a good time to make changes to help fight climate change. To really look at this topic, consider the very top of the graph where the lines begin to diverge (magnified below):

There is a grey zone in the red box highlighting the three paths, but the red arrow marks roughly January 2024 - That is about 18 months away at the time of writing this post. So will we be on the path of decreasing GHG emissions significantly (green arrow, to about 600Mt/year, or 17%) by then, or will we have made very little progress and end up following the top line? By the end of 2024 we will likely be able to see which path we are following. 

What Does It Mean to Reduce by 17% by Jan 2024?

This graph is showing the overall emissions for our country, and therefore reducing by 17% is a nationwide goal. One way to interpret this is that every citizen, regardless of age, or job, or living situation reduces their GHG emissions, including in their homes, with their transportation, and in their employment locations. What might this mean? We could all drive 17% less, or buy a vehicle that is 17% more efficient, and reducing our heating by 17%, buy 17% clothes or other material things, and buy food with with 17% less emissions such as local options. Even this goal is complicated for every Canadian to implement.

A more realistic scenario would likely include some people making decisions to reduce more than 17% while others are slower to make the transition. Not everyone has the means to make changes, and not everyone is even interested. The challenge will be to see which of us makes the changes and which don't?

Other possible scenarios involve large scale corporate or government decisions. In this previous post about the sources of GHG emissions in Canada we see that 17% reductions could be achieved by shutting down much of the oil and gas production in Canada. However, that would not be fair to those industries unless we can provide a Just Transition for the companies and their employees who would need to find new, more sustainable, jobs.

Summary

We don't know what will happen in the future, but examining this one graph should tell you that our fates will be decided in the next 8 years, and that we need to start making decisions in the years of 2022 and 2023 to begin the shift to changing our emissions. The economy is slow to change, but we as consumers have the power to make it happen by being careful with the spending decisions we make. We need to keep the overall warming of our atmosphere below 2.0˚C if possible, and we need to make decisions starting now.

Here is a video from the Economist about what a world of 3.0 degrees of warming could bring.

Climate Change - In the News (June 2022)

NOTE: We attempt to highlight a selection of recent news articles related to climate change to help readers sort through all the news around us these days.

1) "For This Remote First Nation, Installing Heat Pumps is Worth The Effort"

Source: CBC 'What on Earth'

Members of the Heiltsuk Nation have found that relying on fossil fuels to run their community has had a high cost, with not only climate change, but an oil spill from the barge bringing them fuel. For them it is worth the effort to install Heat Pumps for their entire community, as it will save each family money, but also represent a return to a more earth friendly culture which is very important to them.

2) "UN Climate Report - It's 'Now or Never' to limit climate change to 1.5 degrees"

Source: United Nations

This article is very serious, starting with this quote: 

"Reacting to the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN Secretary-General insisted that unless governments everywhere reassess their energy policies, the world will be uninhabitable."

It goes on to say that without immediate and drastic cuts to GHG emissions, and basically a total refit of our energy sectors, we will not be able to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees. Despite continual warnings and the international agreement in Paris in 2016, global emissions have continued to rise since 2010.

3) "Groundbreaking report outlines Canada's quick path to clean power"

Source: The David Suzuki Foundation

A new report says that Canada as a whole could transition to clean and renewable energy by 2035 without significant costs, or relying transition systems or nuclear. The report finds that by expanding solar and wind at a pace which Germany is currently pursuing (to help move away from depending on Russia) that we could successfully move to a zero-emission electrical system. It also highlights how this would create a steady increase in sustainable jobs, and lower overall costs in the long run. It would take a serious commitment from governments at all levels though.

4)  "Government will ban some single-use plastics over the next 18 months"

Source: CBC News

The federal government announced it is following through with it's promise to ban some single use plastics, while continuing to support the industry during the transition. The list of items includes straws, cutlery, stir sticks, and take out containers (and more), and production of these items should cease by the end of this year. Companies will still be able to sell their stock until the end of 2023, or export stock until the end of 2025. Reasons cited are the low demand for recycled plastic, and the poor record we have in Canada for recycling of plastic. Most of these plastic items can be recycled but actually end up in our landfills, and polluting our lands and waters.

5) "Fossil Fuel companies 'have humanity by the throat', says UN head in blistering attack"

Source: The Guardian

Speaking at a climate change conference organized by the White House, Antonio Guterres declared that fossil fuel companies are leveraging the war in the Ukraine to bring in record profits and further expand their fuel explorations. He alleges that they deny the negative impacts their products have on climate change and hide their connections behind misleading information. He also criticized governments and other businesses for failing to take opportunities to reduce emissions quickly despite several scary reports from the UN recently (such as #2 above.)

Earth Day Event Review: Part 2 - Local Service Providers

There were a number of local service providers present displaying their wares for greener options to fight climate change at our April 2022 Earth Day Event. Many include options for under the government programs listed in our previous post, and but there were some additional options as well. We are grateful to all our participants!

Here is a summary list:

1. Campbell Heating: Heat Pumps

Heat pumps are a modern alternative for heating your home. A heat pump run on electricity and extract heat from the outside air or ground, even at temperatures of -28˚C, and then releases the energy into your home, with no exchange of air. Efficiency ratings (COP) are 3 to 4 times better than baseboard heating, so that with every unit of energy spent in electricity, you get 3-4 units of heat energy in your home. These devices also provide cooling in the summer just like air conditioning.

2. Manitoulin Off-Grid: Solar Systems

Solar energy is clean from the sun, and free, once you put up the system. Solar panels are continuously improving and becoming cheaper to buy so that this type of installation on your home is even more affordable than ever. You can either install a full system to go off-grid and be done with hydro bills completely, or register with the provincial net-metering program to sell your electricity back to the grid while still maintaining your public connection to power.

3. Manitoulin Tree Services: Arborists

Planting trees, maintaining your current trees, and cutting down dangerous ones safely are all an important part of maintaining the land on Manitoulin. Contact a local arborist to get help keeping trees around us as much as possible. They act as strong carbon syncs and as a renewable energy resource for our local economy.

4. Manitoulin Climate Consortium: A variety of programs

Manitoulin Climate Consortium brings together various local groups with the common goal of confronting the climate crisis. Current members include ‘Cultural Seeds’, Community Gardens, We Will Plant Lodge, and more.

5. Manitoulin Streams: River Rehabilitation and Tree Planting

Manitoulin Streams has a long history of environmental projects completed on Manitoulin, more related to riparian work such as was conducted on the Kagawong River several years ago. They contribute in many other ways around the island as well, working with local interest groups, schools, and municipalities to help maintain our treasured ecosystems.

6. Eco-Growth Environmental: Composting Process for Fuel

This group has developed technology to convert ordinary compost into dehydrated ‘pucks’ that can be burned for heating your home. They are composting experts that can help turn this common waste into a useful fuel for businesses.

7. Re-think Green: Local and Municipal programs

Re-think Green is a Sudbury based non-profit organization that works primarily with municipalities and business to explore green options, opportunities and funding. They can help groups apply for funding related to green projects, or facilitate workshops to develop strategies for future planning. 

The Billings Climate Action Committee would also like to thank the following groups for attending the spring Earth Day Event to help spread information for the benefit of our community:

• Manitoulin Secondary School Eco-Heros

• Devin Whyte: Electric Cars

Earth Day Event Review: Part 1 - Government Rebates

 At the spring Earth Day Event in April 2022 we had several service groups represented to raise awareness of opportunities for Billings Residents to take advantage of climate saving options. Here are a few highlights:

A) Canada Greener Home Grant

This program will help fund up to $5000 in ‘Green’ home energy upgrades for Canadians. It will cover partial costs for improvements in many possible areas, depending on the needs of your home. All the upgrades and improvements are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while also saving homeowners money over longer periods. The program will also cover up to $600 of fees for the required home inspections by a licensed Home Energy Inspector.

Home Energy -Blower Test

Examples:

• Improving insulation in walls or attics

• Upgrading windows/doors for reducing heat loss

• Upgrading home heating options for increased efficiency

• Installing green energy options in your home for increased efficiency

• Upgrading water systems, such as toilets or water heaters, for increased efficiency

To go through the process you follow these general steps:

1. Register for the ‘Canada Greener Homes Grant’ and choose a “Green Energy Company’ from the list provided to conduct your grant visits.

2. Connect with a local Home Energy Inspector to have them come to your house for an inspection before work is done.

3. The Home Energy Inspector discusses your ideas for improvements and recommends solutions that align with the options available with the grant.

4. Install the improvements with a chosen local contractor.

5. Have a post-installation visit from the Home Energy Inspector to ensure goals have been met for the program.

6. Send in your receipts online to the Green Homes Grant Website.

7. Receive a rebate check.

It is important to note that contact with the Home Inspector MUST occur before the work has been done to your home - they need to inspect your house first!

Additional questions can be directed to your local contractors, or to Chris T on the committee who has gone through the process already.

B) Managed Forest Tax Incentive Program

This provincial tax credit has been active for over a decade with many Islanders already taking advantage. It follows many different ‘10’s on how it functions

• Anyone with at least 10 acres (4 hectares) of forest on a single property can apply, as long as they are a Canadian citizen or permanent resident

• A ‘Managed Forest Plan Approver’ will visit and work with residents to develop a 10 year management plan for maintain the forest.

• This plan will be reviewed after 5 years and requires updating after 10 years to continue with the program. 

The basic premise is that maintaining forest is good for our communities and our province. So the government will provide a tax incentive to maintain forests. The most common question relating to this program is what is required to ‘maintain’ the forest. A local ‘Managed forest Plan Approver’ that presented at the event, Maria Diebolt, of Manitoulin Tree Services, suggests that all of these actions are still allowed while maintaining your forest for the tax credit:

• Maple Syrup collection

• Cutting for firewood

• Maintaining a road/path

Basically, you as long as you don’t clear cut the forest, and act responsibility so the forest can remain healthy for generations it will qualify. 

To get involved with the Tax Credit program, contact your local arborist and connect with any of the local Plan Approvers. Estimated annual tax savings are likely in the hundreds of dollars.

Earth Day Event 2022

 Saturday, April 23, 1-4pm

at the Billings Parks Centre

"Small Steps Towards Making a Difference"

Note: This post will be updated with the latest details for this event as they become available.

The Climate Action Committee (CAC) of Billings welcomes you to an afternoon of 'Green' learning where you can come and share with other community members while focusing on ways to make a difference to slow down climate change. The event will feature short talks by 3 guest speakers who will address contrasting elements of climate change and helping the environment. There will also be a selection of local businesses and groups providing booths for conversation and questions. See the list below for more information:

Guest Speakers:

1:20pm - Marshall Kruger - Energy Advisor, Rosewood Energy

                Canada Greener Homes Grant

2:00pm - Liam Campbell - Manitoulin Streams

               The Benefits of a Vegetative Riparian Zone along the Kagawong River

2:40pm - Chris Theijsmeijer - Billings CAC Member
                Electric Vehicle Updates

3:20pm - Maria Diebolt - Manitoulin Tree Services
                The Managed Forest System

Booth Participants:

• Campbell Heating (Andy Campbell)- Air Source Heat Pumps and more
• Manitoulin Off-Grid (Andre Probst) - Solar Panels and Home Energy
• Colen McKeever - Eco-Growth Environmental - Compost Fuel Systems
• Manitoulin Streams (Liam Campbell) - River Projects and More!
• Manitoulin Tree Service (Maria Diebolt) - Tree Planting and Forest Management
• Manitoulin Climate Consortium (Kim Neale) - Community Climate Action opportunities [in conjunction with Celeste Smith (Cultural Seeds) and Chuc & Linda Wilson (Community Garden)]
• ReThink Green (Simon Blakely, Program Director) - Green Economy North Program
• MSS Eco-Hero Program (Various students) - The Eco-Hero Program and climate action
• Chris Theijsmeijer - Electric Vehicles

Refreshments will be available, but feel free to bring your own mug. Sanitizer and masks will be available but both are optional for this event. It will be wonderful to get together in person again.

Canada's Approach to Climate Change

 In March 2022 the Canadian Government released it's new plan "2030 Emissions Reductions Plan". 

NOTE: All the information presented in this post is taken from this plan. 

Overall it hopes to reduce Canada's GHG emissions by 40-45% below levels recorded in 2005. This attempts to meet our country's climate commitments made at COP 26 in 2021, in an effort to keep global warming below 2.0˚C. The plan covers many areas of emissions over all industries in the country as shown in this graph from the plan.

The plan is very diverse but it has several categories that are presented:

• Homes and Buildings: plans such as the "Canada Greener Homes Grant/Loan" will help home owners improve home efficiency, and stimulate jobs in these greener industry options.
• Funding Community Action: a large amount of money will be provided to provinces, municipalities and smaller organizations such as schools, universities, hospitals, business and non-profits to help them transition to greener options.
• Switching to Electric Vehicles: Additional funding will include incentives for Canadians to buy Electric Vehicles and a promise to help add 50,000 charging stations. It also sets many benchmarks to mandate EV options such as 20% of new light-duty vehicles will be zero-emissions by 2026.
• Reducing Emission from Oil/Gas Sector: The government will enforce caps on carbon dioxide and methane emissions that will scale up by 2030 encouraging efficiency and cleaner production.
• Increasing Renewable Energy Sources: Investments in green electricity production across the country will help ensure we have the power available to meet the needs of electrification.
• Clean Energy Technology in Industry: introducing an array of strategies to help businesses improve their efficiency and transition to greener options.
• Investing in Nature: Nature has many strong carbon-sink options that need protecting and expanding if possible, including expanding carbon off-set strategies.
• Supporting Farmers: Investments in the "On-Farm Climate Action Fund"and the "Agricultural Green Technology Program:" will help farmers expand their green efficiency options while continuing to put food on our plates.
• Price on Carbon: In April the carbon tax rose to $50/tonne and it will continue to rise to ensure that low emission options become more and more economically feasible, while stimulating funds for green government action.

All of these actions are hopefully also going to have several effects on our population as well:

• Stimulate good, sustainable jobs
• Build a resilient economy
• Making life more affordable for the middle class
• Ensuring clean air
• Fight inequality
• Provide more opportunities in nature
• Improve our climate resilience

Summary for the Average Homeowner

Overall this plan will mean a few things for the average Canadian. The price on carbon will maintain the path that will make carbon heavy options, such as oil and poor gas efficiency, more expensive every year. The collection of this carbon tax will help pay for incentive programs will provide loans, grants, or rebates on low emissions options, like heat pumps for houses, or hybrid and electric vehicles. A transition will occur to reduce shipping overall, encouraging more local opportunities, and also in the job market as greener, more sustainable jobs, will begin to replace more high-emission relate careers.

Canadian Greenhouse Gas Emissions

As a developed country we have enjoyed a long history with the automobile and manufacturing as a whole. Hence, we have had high emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) for may years. See the graph below to compare Canada versus South Korea, a country with about twice our population. For the past 60 years we have emitted far more GHGs than South Korea.

GHG Emissions (metric tonnes per capita) 

Per Capita Emissions

Over the past 50-60 years our emissions have been higher than the world average. In fact we have often been in the top 10 largest emitters of GHGs in the world when measured on a per capita basis. This is not a 'Top 10 List' that we really want to be seen in!

The graph below uses data taken from 2018, and puts us at #5! The actual position in the ranking changes depending on the exact year, but overall, we are one of the worst GHG emitters in the world on a per capita basis.

Source

Total Emissions by Country

As a whole we are smaller country and so we don't emit as much total GHGs as many countries such as the United States and China, but we are still a large contributor considering we have about the 39th largest population. In the chart below we are listed as 11th overall for the year 2020. (1st column)

Total GHG Emissions in 2020 (Metric Tonnes)

(NOTE: this 2020 data actually has us ranked at 12th on a per capita basis, due to a slight decrease to our per capita basis, and an increase from many smaller countries.)

Where do these GHG emissions coming from?

Emission Sources in Canada

Much of our GHG emissions are from sources that we have very little direct control. The graph below shows us that the largest source of emissions in Canada is from the 'Oil and Gas' industry.  We can't directly reduce this source, but we can change the fuel source in our vehicles, thus reducing the need to produce as much Oil and Gas, while also reducing the 2nd largest source 'transportation'. This would be accomplished by using electric or partially electric vehicles, or perhaps hydrogen vehicles.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada (2021) National Inventory Report 1990-2019: Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks in Canada.

The next largest source of emissions is 'Buildings', both commercial and residential. Statistics suggest that as much as 60% or more of the emissions from buildings is from heating requirements. This suggests that if we can reduce our reliance on Oil and Gas in heating our homes can help reduce overall emissions as well.

Summary: 

Canada has been responsible for more than it's fair share of GHG emissions. Some of this comes from the fact that we have cold winters, and large distances between towns and cities, but it is also because we live privileged lives. Primary ways we can likely reduce our GHG emissions are through driving less, or converting to more efficient vehicles, such as hybrids or EVs, and switching to alternative sources of heating in our buildings, away from oil and gases as much as is feasible.